Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 188.930482 231.407708 284.891398 358.642519 460.123941 5.987002e+02 8.094726e+02
2025-02-16 141.459412 189.687678 258.758027 369.789655 554.333677 8.717586e+02 1.523314e+03
2025-02-23 114.962293 163.785909 240.208221 377.723988 643.277299 1.202407e+03 2.754713e+03
2025-03-02 95.117370 141.233584 218.037328 368.108811 693.669308 1.506605e+03 4.528215e+03
2025-03-09 81.182173 124.459064 200.137625 358.273808 737.200842 1.844006e+03 7.437992e+03
2025-03-16 70.193934 110.277095 183.071803 343.538412 761.135859 2.162761e+03 1.185362e+04
2025-03-23 66.830629 108.613468 188.638912 379.262956 941.559925 3.314134e+03 3.429448e+04
2025-03-30 61.170125 101.696064 182.168123 384.545087 1039.073967 4.359612e+03 9.012778e+04
2025-04-06 57.332326 97.555804 180.471061 401.370698 1192.635035 6.213301e+03 4.471887e+05
2025-04-13 52.377155 90.479811 170.975517 393.891497 1251.338099 7.701581e+03 2.856332e+06
2025-04-20 51.018441 90.392278 177.108753 433.948687 1558.304884 1.351148e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 49.365885 89.425572 180.972532 469.299385 1899.663053 2.441683e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.213249 87.279530 182.028313 498.409182 2278.447587 4.735147e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 44.781686 84.202702 180.163231 517.260105 2645.270990 9.483836e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.374879 80.855897 176.924104 530.013154 3012.822280 2.066520e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 39.329294 75.671911 167.718896 515.022047 3121.151027 3.486303e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.616997 70.976099 159.125876 499.693767 3214.118728 6.219051e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.978905 66.190196 149.548809 476.831421 3197.036924 9.799543e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.726686 67.061433 156.500766 532.517410 4301.407610 1.053204e+08 NaN
2025-06-22 32.254121 64.791900 153.691769 540.822721 4840.477713 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 31.295465 63.690519 154.288278 567.398069 5853.455458 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.621157 60.619534 148.184253 555.562557 6116.082379 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.478702 61.439820 154.765052 619.362475 8617.445907 NaN NaN